This case study shows how OutcomeLab tested a high-stakes pre-launch decision by comparing realistic scenarios, testing assumptions, and producing an action plan before budget and reputation were on the line.
Decision being tested
The client wanted to avoid launching with mixed messages, wasted marketing spend or the wrong channel strategy. Three specific decisions had to be resolved before opening day: which product should lead the brand, how the first marketing budget should be allocated, and how to balance delivery platforms against walk-in trade.
Options compared
- Hero product: smash burger vs flatbread-led menu vs balanced signature range.
- Marketing spend: paid Instagram + Facebook vs TikTok-first vs community and tasting events vs mixed allocation.
- Channel mix: delivery-platform-heavy vs walk-in-heavy vs balanced acquisition-plus-margin strategy.
Inputs used
- Client business brief — menu, positioning, pricing and launch goals.
- Local market context, competitor set and typical customer profiles.
- Operational constraints — kitchen throughput, staff levels, opening hours.
- Available marketing budget and target launch date.
Assumptions tested
- Local customers respond more strongly to a single recognisable hero product than a broad menu.
- Social sharing behaviour differs meaningfully across Instagram, Facebook and TikTok in this catchment.
- Delivery-platform economics erode margin even when they grow volume.
- Community tasting events can convert trust faster than paid awareness.
What the simulation surfaced
Simplutech used MiroFish-powered multi-agent simulation with the client’s brief as seed material. The model tested local customer reactions, likely objections, sharing behaviour, competitor context and operational risks. Key findings:
- The smash burger drew the strongest early excitement and repeat intent; flatbreads worked as a differentiator, not as the lead.
- Instagram and Facebook out-performed TikTok for local awareness among the target demographic.
- A community tasting event in launch week built more trust per pound than equivalent paid awareness.
- Delivery platforms grew volume but eroded per-order margin — better used as an acquisition channel than as primary revenue.
- Walk-in and direct-order trade protected margin and repeat rate over the 90-day window.
Recommendation
Lead with the smash burger as the hero product, position flatbreads as the differentiator, prioritise Instagram and Facebook for awareness, run a community tasting event in launch week, and treat delivery platforms as an early acquisition channel while building direct and walk-in trade for margin.
30 / 60 / 90-day action plan
- 0–30 days: Lock menu with smash burger as hero and flatbread as differentiator. Launch Instagram and Facebook, seed with pre-launch teaser content. Organise a community tasting event in opening week. Onboard onto delivery platforms with introductory pricing.
- 30–60 days: Track walk-in vs delivery split and per-order margin. Reinvest into whichever channel is delivering margin, not just volume. Test 3–4 paid-social creative variants. Collect testimonials and repeat-visit data from tasting-event attendees.
- 60–90 days: Consolidate the strongest content format. Introduce a light loyalty mechanic for direct walk-in customers. Review delivery-platform contribution and renegotiate or reduce exclusivity where margin is worst. Prepare a month-4 menu extension using the winning differentiator.
Validation status
Implementation is ongoing. Results will be tracked against forecast over 6 months.
Disclaimer: OutcomeLab reports are decision-support tools, not guarantees. Results depend on available data, stated assumptions and real-world execution.